Best Days Yet To Come, 2013 Manufacturing Forecast

The reinvention of manufacturing is underway, and the outlook is good. Our factories are running again, humming again, working again. But where are the people? If there is any bad news in this report from ISM it is that we are not expecting employment to increase in 2013.

Where are the people to restore the roar in this manufacturing renaissance?

Economic growth in the United States will continue in 2013, say the nation's purchasing and supply management executives in their December 2012 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations are for a continuation of the economic recovery that began in mid-2009, as indicated in the monthly ISM Report On Business ®. 

The manufacturing sector is optimistic about growth in 2013, with revenues expected to increase in 17 manufacturing industries, and the non-manufacturing sector predicts that 14 of its industries will see higher revenues. 

Capital expenditures, a major driver in the U.S. economy, are expected to increase by 7.6 percent in the manufacturing sector and by 7 percent in the non-manufacturing sector.

Manufacturing, however, expects that its employment base will grow by less than 1 percent, while non-manufacturing expects employment growth of 1.3 percent.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Business Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management ™ (ISM). The forecast was released Dec. 12, 2012 by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and by Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee .  

Manufacturing Summary

Expectations for 2013 are positive as 62 percent of survey respondents expect revenues to be greater in 2013 than in 2012. The panel of purchasing and supply executives expects a 4.6 percent net increase in overall revenues for 2013, compared to a 4 percent increase reported for 2012 over 2011 revenues. 

The 17 manufacturing industries expecting revenue improvement over 2012 — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products.

"Manufacturing purchasing and supply executives expect to see continued growth in 2013. They are optimistic about their overall business prospects for the first half of 2013,” said Holcomb, “and are even more optimistic about the second half of 2013.” 

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