Restore The Roar: New Car Sales Should Be Up More Than 14 Percent

August 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Up 14.4 Percent According to TrueCar; August 2013 SAAR at 15.75M, Highest August SAAR since 2007

TrueCar.com, company that sources, compiles, and analyzes car-buying information, has released its August 2013 sales and incentives forecast. It shows a 14.4 percent increase in new car sales during the month of August.

• For August 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,464,214 units, up 14.4 percent from August 2012 and up 11.8% percent from July 2013 (on an unadjusted basis).
• The August 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.75 million new car sales, down less than one percent from July 2013 and up nine percent overAugust 2012.
• Retail sales are up 10.5 percent compared to August 2012 and up 11.7 percent from July 2013.
• Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 15.0 percent of total industry sales in August 2013.
• The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,477 in August 2013, which represents an increase of 0.4 percent from August 2012 and is down 2.6 percent from July 2013. Incentives are at their lowest percentage since January of this year.
• Used car sales* are estimated to be 3,451,179.  The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1: 3 for August 2013.

Individual Manufacturer highlights:

• General Motors is enjoying its highest sales since Sept. 2008
• Honda's sales are its highest since August 2009
• Chrysler enjoyed its second highest sales month this year

"New vehicle sales defied their typical strong correlation with Wall Street in August and continued to post a healthy increase despite the lackluster performance in financial markets," said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com. "Small SUVs became the fastest growing segment this month, with this very functional and affordable vehicle category now making up 15.5% of all sales, up from 13.5% from a year ago."

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for August 2013:

Unit Sales
Manufacturer	August 2013 Forecast	% Change vs. July 2013	% Change vs. Aug. 2012
Chrysler	169,269	22.0%	14.5%
Ford	217,173	15.1%	12.6%
GM	265,369	13.4%	10.3%
Honda	156,371	10.6%	19.1%
Hyundai/Kia	121,462	5.6%	9.3%
Nissan	118,247	8.4%	20.0%
Toyota	215,413	11.4%	14.3%
Volkswagen Group	59,710	13.4%	7.5%
Industry	1,464,214	11.8%	14.4%

Market Share
Manufacturer	August 2013 Forecast	Jul-13	Aug-12
Chrysler	11.6%	10.6%	11.5%
Ford	14.8%	14.4%	15.1%
GM	18.1%	17.9%	18.8%
Honda	10.7%	10.8%	10.3%
Hyundai/Kia	8.3%	8.8%	8.7%
Nissan	8.1%	8.3%	7.7%
Toyota	14.7%	14.8%	14.7%
Volkswagen Group	4.1%	4.0%	4.3%

Incentive Spending
Manufacturer	August 2013 Incentives	% Changevs. July 2013	% Changevs. August 2012	Total Spending
Chrysler	$ 2,987	-0.7%	-8.8%	$  505,588,038
Ford	$ 2,949	-1.2%	12.1%	$  640,336,893
GM	$ 3,469	-3.4%	12.1%	$  920,612,117
Honda	$ 1,498	-15.2%	-38.1%	$  234,287,982
Hyundai/Kia	$ 1,584	-2.2%	33.4%	$  192,433,604
Nissan	$ 2,301	-10.1%	-16.7%	$  272,083,915
Toyota	$ 1,863	4.6%	-0.5%	$  401,334,151
Volkswagen Group	$ 2,461	-3.3%	17.4%	$  146,955,118
Industry	$ 2,477	-2.6%	0.4%	$ 3,622,340,527

"Despite the push to sell down older models, incentive spending has declined for its second consecutive month," said Kristen Andersson, analyst at TrueCar.com. "Chrysler hit its lowest level of incentive spending since May 2011 while also seeing double digit sales increases, as their strong product lineup continues to resonate with buyers. Honda has also slashed its incentive spending, which is down almost 40 percent from last year." 

TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including  sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts and CPI).  TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.

*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales

Restore The Roar: Manufacturing Renaissance, a five-part ebook essay series tells the story of the collapse and rise of Michigan manufacturing. For a preview, please click here.

General Motors, Honda

General Motors, Honda Combine Forces To Develop Hydrogen, Fuel Cell Technology

By Rod Kackley

Forty years after General Motors, Ford and Chrysler were getting knocked to the canvas  by Japanese auto imports, the biggest of the Detroit Three has signed a deal with Honda to work together on fuel cell system and hydrogen storage technologies.

GM and Honda executives said they can roll out these new technologies around 2020 by sharing knowledge and “economies of scale” under a “long-term definitive master agreement” that was announced July 2, 2013

They also going to be working with as-yet unnamed “stakeholders” to build a “refueling infrastructure.” They realize that we are not going to drive one of these new cars unless we are confident the vehicles can be recharged or refueled with the same ease to which we are accustomed.

Neither Honda nor General Motors are strangers to these technologies. According to the Clean Energy Patent Growth Index, GM and Honda rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in total fuel cell patents filed between 2002 and 2012, with more than 1,200 between them.

"This collaboration builds upon Honda and GM's strengths as leaders in hydrogen fuel cell technology," said Dan Akerson, the chairman and chief executive officer of General Motors. "We are convinced this is the best way to develop this important technology, which has the potential to help reduce the dependence on petroleum and establish sustainable mobility."

GM's Project Driveway program, launched in 2007, has accumulated nearly 3 million miles of real-world driving in a fleet of 119 hydrogen-powered vehicles, more than any other automaker.

Honda began leasing of the Honda FCX in 2002 and has deployed 85 units in the U.S. and Japan, including its successor, the FCX Clarity, which was named the 2009 World Green Car. Honda has delivered these vehicles to the hands of customers in the U.S. and collected valuable data concerning real-world use of fuel cell electric vehicles.

However, General Motors and Honda are hardly the first car companies to look at hydrogen technology. Daimler AG, Hyundai and Toyota announced plans to develop hydrogen cars at the World Hydrogen Conference in 2012.

Takanobu Ito, president & CEO of Honda Motor Co. Ltd. said: "Among all zero CO2 emission technologies, fuel cell electric vehicles have a definitive advantage with range and refueling time that is as good as conventional gasoline cars. I am excited to form this collaboration to fuse our leading fuel cell technologies and create an advanced system that will be both more capable and more affordable."

However, Lux Research, Inc. issued a report earlier this year (2013) pointing out that the dream of a hydrogen economy is still just that, a dream.
"Capital cost, not hydrogen supply, will limit adoption to a mere 5.9 GW" by 2030, providing "a nearly insurmountable barrier to adoption, except in niche applications.”

The twenty-first century has been a historic journey for the Detroit Three. Manufacturing is back. The auto companies are hiring. But first, we had to go through The Great Collapse.
That story is told in this ebook essay, the first in the Restore The Roar: Manufacturing Renaissance series. For a preview, please click here.

Last Chance Mile: The Reinvention of an American Community tells the story of how the people of Grand Rapids, while the rest of Michigan was crashing around them, were able to change the way the world sees their community. For a free preview, please click here.

Last Chance Mile: The Reinvention of an American Community is available through Abbott Press, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and iTunes

Autographed editions are available through www.rodkackley.com as well as on the shelves of Barnes & Noble-Woodland Mall, Schuler Books & Music 28th Street and West Coast Coffee-Monroe Center, Grand Rapids, Michigan.